Un año después de la caída del faraón Mubarak, el proceso de cambios en el mundo árabe sigue abierto, e incierto. Con la sola excepción del precursor Túnez, cuya transición parece encarrilada, el resto de los países en los que ha habido revueltas caen en tres categorías:
\r\n- 1. En proceso de transición: Libia y Yemen. Tras una guerra civil, los libios tratan ahora de hacer, más que rehacer, un país en el que la identidad nacional es débil y los sentimientos tribales actúan como fuerzas centrípetas. En Yemen, la presión externa y la promesa de inmunidad, ha conseguido que el presidente Saleh acepte retirarse formalmente del poder y se ha puesto en marcha una transición política cogida con alfileres. En ambos casos, va a necesitarse mucho tiempo y apoyo para evitar que descarrilen.
\r\n\r\n- 2. Cerradas en falso: Bahréin y Arabia Saudí. Ni las medidas de reconciliación ni el fondo de compensación a las víctimas anunciados por las autoridades de Bahréin han convencido a quienes salieron a la calle para pedir derechos cívicos. A diferencia de los otros países, la división sectaria entre una familia real suní y una población mayoritariamente chií dificulta la solución. La democracia plena acabaría con la dinastía de los Al Jalifa. Las protestas continúan. Como continúan en la Provincia Oriental de Arabia Saudí, donde las autoridades han respondido con medidas policiales a parecidas exigencias de su minoría chií (para el resto de la población ver el último párrafo).
\r\nFinalmente, hay un cuarto grupo de países, cuyos gobernantes han respondido raudos a las peticiones de sus súbditos (Marruecos, Jordania y Omán) y han logrado, de momento, contener las protestas. Aquí cabría incluir a los que se han adelantado a tal eventualidad con mejoras económicas y promesas políticas, como la propia Arabia Saudí, Kuwait, Emiratos Árabes Unidos e incluso Catar.
\r\n* Este artículo apareció en la edición impresa del Jueves, 26 de enero de 2012
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