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For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/."],["elementContainer",["element",{"elementId":"50"},["name","Title"],["description","A name given to the resource"],["elementTextContainer",["elementText",{"elementTextId":"32216"},["text",""]]]]]]]],["itemType",{"itemTypeId":"18"},["name",""],["description",""],["elementContainer",["element",{"elementId":"52"},["name","Texto original"],["description"],["elementTextContainer",["elementText",{"elementTextId":"33757"},["text","La revolución árabe no ha hecho más que empezar y va a prolongarse todavía durante muchos años de un extremo a otro de esta región. Sin embargo, los éxitos electorales cosechados por las formaciones islamistas en Túnez, Marruecos y Egipto llevan a algunos a considerar que este capítulo está cerrado y que un otoño islamista ha sucedido ya a la primavera árabe. Nada sería más erróneo que caer en esta trampa intelectual, ya que el levantamiento democrático enterró la alternativa entre dictadura e islamismo, después de décadas en las que Ben Ali y Mubarak la martillearon para justificar su despotismo. En cuanto a los islamistas, saben que disponen de una ventana de oportunidad y van a tratar de sacar de ella los máximos beneficios, antes de que esta coyuntura favorable evolucione, quizás en su detrimento.
\r\n\r\nEn Túnez, Ennahda ha logrado 89 escaños, de 217 posibles, en la Asamblea Constituyente (con un 36% de sufragios emitidos) y obtiene así la presidencia del Gobierno, dejando la de la Asamblea a un socialdemócrata y la de la República a un nacionalista. El Partido Justicia y Desarrollo (PJD), que obtiene 107 diputados de 385 posibles, con el 29% de los votos, consigue también el cargo de primer ministro en Marruecos. Los Hermanos Musulmanes egipcios ganan el 40% de los votos en la primera de las tres vueltas de las elecciones egipcias, sin juzgar de antemano el resultado de estas.
\r\nNos encaminamos en todos los casos hacia unos Gobiernos de coalición, en los que los islamistas deberán alcanzar compromisos con formaciones laicas, nacionalistas o liberales. No hay que olvidar nunca que los Hermanos Musulmanes jordanos obtuvieron el 40% de los votos en 1989, en las primeras elecciones libres en un cuarto de siglo, pero los mediocres resultados de su Gobierno les hicieron perder los siguientes comicios.
\r\n\r\n
Nada más erróneo que achacar a la 'primavera árabe' un 'otoño integrista'
\r\n
En los tres países, los partidos islamistas no han hecho campaña con un programa islámico, sino con lemas de moralización de la vida política y de afirmación nacionalista. Sacan provecho de un voto heterogéneo, en el que el factor islamista no es necesariamente mayoritario, pero en el que se pueden encontrar dos aspiraciones contradictorias: la voluntad de ruptura con el antiguo régimen, por una parte, que ha beneficiado a formaciones que fueron el blanco de la represión de las dictaduras, y el deseo de normalización rápida, por otra, que ha beneficiado a un partido del orden, sobre todo en Egipto, donde los Hermanos Musulmanes se han distanciado de la protesta de la plaza de Tahrir. La heterogeneidad de este voto corresponde a la gran diversidad de tendencias en el seno de estos partidos, cuya disciplina interna, de tipo leninista, ha contenido hasta ahora. Pero Ennahda se muestra incapaz de celebrar un congreso desde su legalización y las tensiones entre los Hermanos Musulmanes son innumerables.
\r\nLas formaciones islamistas van a verse obligadas en todas partes a realizar un aprendizaje acelerado de pluralismo externo e interno, mientras que los años de represión, e incluso de clandestinidad, les han inculcado una cultura y una práctica del monolitismo. Además, las organizaciones con las que se niegan a trabajar —la Propuesta Popular (populista), en Túnez; Justicia y Caridad (aliado de los contestatarios del Movimiento del 20 de Febrero), en Marruecos, y los salafistas (muy conservadores en los temas sociales) en Egipto— las cuestionan por ese pluralismo. El juego se inicia en una escena política estructurada, por primera vez de forma clara, entre una mayoría y una oposición. Los vencedores de las elecciones de este otoño van a tener que demostrar su capacidad para gestionar los asuntos del país. La inclinación natural será más bien hacia la retórica patriótica que hacia la escalada religiosa. Y la intensidad de la crisis social podría, si no acortar esta hora islamista, sí al menos acabar muy rápido con su actual estado de gracia.
\r\nJean-Pierre Filiu es catedrático de Ciencias Políticas (París) y autor de Las nueve vidas de Al Qaeda (Icaria).
\r\nTraducción de News Clips.
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