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Zhong Yu, un hombre de 52 años de la provincia de Shandong, hizo hace tres años lo que millones de chinos antes que él: emigrar a Pekín “porque quería ganar dinero”. Hasta entonces, vivía en Jinan (capital de Shandong), donde vendía verduras, y, antes de eso, fue campesino. “Me fui de mi pueblo cuando tenía 18 o 19 años. Éramos muchos y la tierra no daba para alimentar a una familia”, cuenta en una nave cochambrosa, que hace también de vivienda, en la que vende cemento, en Dongba, un suburbio del extrarradio de Pekín a unos 20 kilómetros del centro. “Aquí hay un gran mercado, hay más oportunidades y es fácil hacer negocios”, afirma junto a una estufa de carbón, en una habitación forrada de carteles verdes de una bebida refrescante, que aportan un poco de color a la miseria del lugar.

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\"Chinapulsa en la fotoANTONIO ALONSO / EL PAÍS\r\n
 
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Su situación es dura, pero Zhong es optimista. “Nuestra calidad de vida ha mejorado en general”, dice, sentado en un sillón impregnado de polvo. A su lado, su esposa, Li Guili, también de 52 años, asiente, pero le recuerda que, en invierno, la nave es un congelador; en verano, un horno, y, cuando llueve, el agua cae en el interior desde el techo. En una mesa, hay un plato con restos de fideos del almuerzo y un termo de agua caliente para el té.

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Zhong y Li son dos entre los 260 millones de chinos que han emigrado del campo a las ciudades desde principios de la década de los ochenta en busca del trabajo y las oportunidades que no tienen en sus pueblos. El proceso de urbanización se aceleró cuando, en diciembre de 1978, Deng Xiaoping puso en marcha el programa de apertura y reforma de la economía, y la mano de obra fluyó hacia las nuevas regiones industriales. Los controles sobre el movimiento de la población fueron relajados, pero los emigrantes continuaron legalmente atados a sus lugares de origen por medio del hukou o registro de residencia, un sistema creado en 1958, que les impide en la práctica instalarse con sus familias en las ciudades en las que trabajan porque no gozan de los mismos servicios sociales, de educación y sanitarios que los locales. La mayoría deja a los hijos con los abuelos y otros familiares en los pueblos.

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El Gobierno considera que ha llegado el momento de dar un nuevo impulso al proceso de urbanización. Cree que el modelo actual de desarrollo ha alcanzado un punto de inflexión y debe pasar de una economía basada en la inversión y la exportación a una más centrada en el consumo. Para ello, es preciso que los habitantes de las zonas rurales mejoren sus ingresos y compren más, lo que, a su vez, requiere que cientos de millones emigren a las ciudades —ya que en el campo sobra mano de obra y falta empleo— y que los que lo hagan puedan vivir en igualdad de condiciones que los locales.

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Porque, a pesar de su optimismo, Zhong y Li saben que son ciudadanos de segunda en Pekín, ya que su hukou es de su pueblo en Shandong. “Si pudiéramos, nos gustaría tener la residencia aquí”, dice Li. “En Pekín, hay más lugar para progresar, y el seguro médico es mejor. En China, hay una gran desigualdad entre las ciudades y las zonas rurales”, añade Zhong. El matrimonio asegura que si pudieran trasladar el hukou a Jinan, donde viven sus dos hijos, también se irían allí. “La vivienda en Pekín es demasiado cara”, afirma Zhong, que paga un alquiler de unos 1.000 yuanes (125 euros) al mes por la nave.

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El pasado 5 de marzo, el primer ministro saliente, Wen Jiabao, aseguró en el discurso del estado de la Nación que incrementar la demanda interna es vital para el futuro de la segunda economía del mundo y anunció la aceleración de la reforma del sistema del hukou para respaldar el proceso de urbanización. “Hemos de acrecentar la capacidad de la gente para consumir, mantener estables sus expectativas al respecto, aumentar su deseo de consumir y mejorar el ambiente de consumo”, dijo Wen.

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“Claro que queremos gastar dinero, pero no tenemos”, se queja Gao, una vendedora de verduras de la provincia de Henan de “más de 40 años”, en el interior de la caja de un camión herrumbroso en el que viven un amigo, su esposa y dos hijos, en un descampado a unos cientos de metros de la nave de Zhong. Gao está guardando el vehículo junto con otras tres mujeres. Un catre ocupa el fondo del camión de pared a pared. Las bolsas de plástico con ropa cuelgan de las paredes. En el exterior, se eleva una hilera de edificios residenciales de ocho plantas recién acabados.

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“Si tuviera hukou de Pekín, podría venir y vivir con mi marido y mis dos hijos. Sin él, los niños no pueden ir a colegios públicos y tendría que pagar mucho en uno privado”, afirma Xu Fan, de 32 años, otra de las mujeres, que como Gao ha viajado desde Henan a la capital para ver a su esposo, que trabaja en la construcción.

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El 52,6% de la población china —unos 700 millones de personas— vivía a finales del año pasado en las ciudades; pero esta cifra incluye los más de 200 millones emigrantes rurales que no tienen permiso de residencia. El Gobierno prevé que el porcentaje suba este año a 53,37, lo que significa el desplazamiento de unos 10 millones de personas.

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La tendencia va a seguir al alza. Se prevé que la población urbana alcance 1.000 millones de almas para 2030. Las autoridades no han dado cifras oficiales de cuántas personas emigrarán a las urbes, pero, según expertos sin identificar citados por la agencia Reuters, Pekín pretende gastar 40 billones de yuanes (cinco billones de euros) para que 400 millones de personas se hagan urbanas en la próxima década, y que progresivamente la división entre el hukou rural y el de ciudad desaparezca.

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Kam Wing Chan, profesor en el departamento de Geografía y especialista en China en la Universidad de Washington, estima que las ciudades sumarán 200 millones de nuevos residentes entre 2011 y 2020, frente a los 172 millones de la década anterior.

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Para lograrlo, el Gobierno tendrá que incentivar la transferencia de suelo —con el consiguiente peligro de que se produzcan disputas— y modernizar la agricultura para que sea capaz de alimentar a una población urbana creciente, al tiempo que controla el riesgo de que disminuya el suelo cultivable y evita un torrente de emigrantes que excedan la capacidad de absorción de las ciudades.

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“Reformar el sistema del hukou requiere visión, deseo político y recursos, y no es fácil tenerlos”, afirma Kam Wing Chan. “Los gobiernos locales se resisten a la reforma del hukou porque no tienen dinero para pagar los servicios que necesitan los emigrantes. Muchos gobiernos locales han secuestrado también el programa de urbanización para quitar la tierra a los campesinos y apoyar una burbuja inmobiliaria para que suban los precios del suelo y llenar sus arcas. En esta nueva ronda de urbanización, continúa existiendo ese riesgo”.

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Consciente de los desafíos, el nuevo primer ministro, Li Keqiang, ha afirmado que el Gobierno llevará a cabo el proceso de urbanización de forma “activa, pero prudente”. “La urbanización es un proyecto grande y complejo, que provocará cambios profundos en la economía y la sociedad (…) Necesitará el apoyo de la creación de empleo y la provisión de servicios”, ha advertido Li, para añadir que habrá que coordinar el desarrollo de ciudades grandes medianas y pequeñas, y evitar que “rascacielos coexistan con poblados de chabolas”.

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Li Changping, experto en Pekín del Centro de Investigación para la Construcción Rural de la Universidad de Hebei, da un consejo a las autoridades: “El principal problema será el uso del suelo como fuente de financiación por parte de los gobiernos locales. El Gobierno debería reformar primero el sistema fiscal”.

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